Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
